Friday, January 18, 2013



An analysis of the article “Six Reasons Insurgencies Lose: A Contrarian View by Donald Stoker” and applying to the forces of Freedom

J. Croft

Insurgencies do win, and most of the writing and talking about insurgencies (which is often very good) focuses on what insurgencies do to win, or how to conduct an effective counterinsurgency. More often, insurgencies lose, and sometimes their defeats are a result of the inherent weaknesses of insurgencies, or of their own actions. There are six critical reasons why insurgencies lose, curses brought down upon their own houses, and not induced by counterinsurgent forces.

This is an opening quote to the article I will reference to and through it analyze America’s Freedom Movement and the Militia Movement and III Movement in particular, the latter a fresh wave of armed, responsible Americans. 

1. Insurgencies are weak in comparison to their opponents.

This is unavoidable: a government will typically have more resources due to controlling a nation-state than an insurgency, however the exact nature of just how they’re weak will vary greatly and that will greatly affect their strategy and tactics.  For America’s Freedom Fighters, their enemy is largely clear cut:

*Approximately 1 million in law enforcement, which includes everything from local to state to the various federal agencies, but they will have due to pushes among the LE community have automatic weapons, military pattern semi-automatic rifles along with pistols, shotguns, light aircraft and helicopters, and lightly armored vehicles specifically suited for LE applications.  Assume that every patrol car has some kind of patrol rifle.  Also assume there’s a tactical team that can be quickly called upon, and they’re equipped and geared toward assaulting homes, not full bore military operations.  Most local police officers will be in their profession for exercising the power inherent in their job against average Americans in the form of issuing tickets and fines, and committing violent assault although there is a hard core minority among them that are active serial killers, in or out of their tactical units.   Also, the ten years of war in Iraq and Afghanistan is producing a new generation of combat capable police officers-too many of whom will do what they’re told to do and will have enough combat experience to make them opponents to be respected, though they are yet to be the majority in the local police forces.  That will change for the worse the longer revolution is delayed.

State law enforcement have more stringent training, indoctrination, and have proven to be more willing to enforce the legal codes.  They have also been willing to call upon local units and let them be used as sandbags with heartbeats for their targets.  Being a state law enforcement agency, they have access to a somewhat higher standard of resources and training for their dedicated tactical units, and their coverage is statewide; a rapid LE reaction force to any problem that is beyond a local department’s ability to engage.  They also pilot all the news helicopters and they’re universally equipped to be reconnaissance platforms with FLIR and optical sights.

The various federal civilian law enforcement and regulatory agencies are as well or even better armed than their state and local counterparts.  They also have access to fully armed military fighting vehicles such as the M2 Bradley AFV with its 25mm autocannon and TOW missiles, and ready access to national reconnaissance assets such as satellites and armed drones such as the Predator.  Their tactical teams are a notch higher in training and indoctrination over state and local equivalents and they too act as a rapid reaction force to augment local authorities.  All will have varying degrees of competency, dedication, and training that range from openly dissenting to quietly dissenting, to those simply wanting the power inherent in the job, to those that have staked their lives and fortunes to the enemy.

* The U.S. Military has in recent years established NORTHCOM which has command over the entire North American continent.  National Guard forces can be counted among their number and they field the full range of ground and air assets outside of strategic forces.  Along with at least ten Army Brigade Combat Teams equipped with armor and artillery, there are the entire range of military assets based in America, and in spite of being engaged in Afghanistan, Iraq still, and over 700 bases globally, can likely field over a hundred thousand heavily armed troops for any action in America.  Furthermore, the full range of naval and air forces are available on tap as needed; everything from drones, to fighter bombers to B1, B2, and B52 bombers.  Their loyalty to the U.S. Government is an issue the enemy is constantly analyzing and dealing with, as there’s still a hard corps of Patriots among their ranks, and although they’ve transferred as many of them to foreign theaters as possible there is the worry (for them) about dissenters being motivated enough to mutiny and take themselves and their weapons over to any Patriot fighting groups.  Also, there is a continuous and nearly universal attack on veterans, an effort to find legal or medical reasons to disarm or commit them to mental institutions.  These systematic attacks however, don’t apply to those veterans entering law enforcement to give them a growing cadre of combat veterans.  Overall, the U.S. Government has done their utmost to ensure that all their forces that will be engaging Patriots are on their side though they cannot be certain of their performance.  Neither can we until open hostilities break out.

*Being a member of NATO, the United States can as needed call upon the forces of Canada and Western Europe to augment any U.S. Government forces as needed.  Recent sightings of Mexican, Chinese and Russian military forces in joint exercises with NATO indicates that foreign military forces outside of formal alliances will be used, perhaps under a United Nations mandate.  The rest of NATO’s non-nuclear/strategic military is about equal overall to America’s in numbers and mostly, training.  Mexico has a sizeable ground force military as much equipped with American arms as they are with Chinese, and China fields the largest army on Earth, with access to enough oceangoing merchant vessels to be able to project that power globally, as well as a greatly underestimated strategic capability-a recent study estimated China has over 3,000 nuclear weapons, making them a superpower rival on paper to the U.S. though they will very likely go along with any request for forces for the American theater. 

Contrasting that to any American insurgency, and calculating strength and capability is not nearly as clear.  There are hundreds of millions of guns, uncountable billions of rounds, which although new production and supply is being cut off, the proverbial barn door’s been long open.  There is a roughly estimated one hundred million American gun owners, millions of former serving veterans, millions of active hunters, and perhaps a few million who are III Percent, or are actually in militias-arguably the majority of whom the enemy can only suspect of being among their ranks.  Armament will range from military surplus bolt action and semi-automatic rifles rebuilt from surplus automatic weapons or new production copies that are only semi-auto.  There is also a surprisingly large number of vintage former military armored vehicles, and an uncountable number of automatic and heavy weaponry that were never registered with the government under the 1968 Gun Control Act, or simply taken back from the battlefields of World War Two, Korea, Vietnam.  Mexico is also a potential source of military grade small arms bought by the drug cartels or stolen from the Mexican military though establishing relationships and trade will likely be problematic until battlefield victories can be translated into held territory and acquiring the means to trade, but perhaps when that happens Americans can produce their own weapons.  

Air defense assets are nil however and acquiring and developing anti-air weaponry and combat aircraft will have to be a priority that will be largely contingent on acquiring production capacity and being able to hold the territory wherever it’s built.  Anything beyond the radio controlled toy drones being deployed for infantry units will require a substantial investment in developing or acquiring new weapons.  Surface to air and air to air missiles require a guidance system, warhead and rocket motor, and eventually some form of high performance aircraft will have to be acquired or built.

The biggest x factor will be just how much of the military and law enforcement forces of the U.S. will openly join the Second American Revolution, and just how motivated any foreign forces will be; Russian military forces have reportedly taken a sober view about fighting in America, though nothing can be counted on.  All that being said, unless the enemy fields nuclear weapons, the biggest assets American Patriots will have are time and the skills and inventiveness of the people who worked for what was the greatest industrial and technological power on Earth.   However, Americans greatest fault is that they are by and large among the most heavily conditioned and brainwashed people on Earth, and Patriots are largely ostracized.

 2. Insurgencies are fractious.

Any American insurgency will be composed of thousands of small groups, millions of individuals who will have widely varying goals, and even more widely varying ideals on how to achieve said goals.  Many of which will be at cross purposes, but infighting will likely be simply over a lack of resources or simply because the U.S. Government has invested in penetrating and subverting both the Militia and Patriot Movements: to sow division as well as finding out who’s who and where they live so they can neatly be taken out by a ‘natural gas explosion’ caused by a 500lb bomb dropped from a drone piloted by some 400lb nerd in the Nevada Desert or Virginia who hasn’t seen his toes since childhood and a bath for about that long.  This author’s experiences in the Patriot Movement have confirmed that penetration and subversion to prevent effective peaceful solutions has been the enemy’s strategic goal and they have been widely successful in diverting Americans efforts towards lame Presidential candidates, money bombs for media facilities that go largely underutilized, or wild, unsupported speculations.  Most of the personalities in the Movement are there to make a profit and to ensure you’re kept in paralyzing fear or in a false hope that someone else will solve the problem, either case, it has effectively neutralized politically, the Patriot Movement.  The economic and cultural dissolution and destruction of our nation have attacked greatly Americans ability to be able to participate in the Patriot effort.  The enemy’s ownership of major media and control over the internet and most all forms of electronic communication ensure that the truth doesn’t get out; so much so that all they have to do is fling a mass culture programmed slur such as “tin foil hat” or “conspiracy theorist” and the vast majority of Americans will automatically tune out any truth that they hear unless they’ve had something catastrophic happen, such as the loss of their job, home, or some of the state’s bureaucrats and law enforcement minions have decided to target them.  Which has happened to millions of people as the enemy’s zeal to destroy Our America has produced the very army that will crush them very soon. 

In a war for America, it will be all but impossible to predict just how the fractiousness of American Patriots will be, save that there will certainly be internal conflicts.

3. Insurgencies are leader dependent (sometimes).

America is run by the cult of personality; we are conditioned to worship those lauded in the media, whether they be politicians or celebrities.  A close cousin to this is the deference to anyone in authority-again something media instilled and not part of the historical American experience.  The Patriot Movement is no different and except for a few obvious and obnoxious exceptions who can be figured to be deep cover operatives, the ingrained reflex of Americans to follow a charismatic leader is automatically followed. 

Wars produce leaders-those who clearly see problems and try to solve them with varying degrees of success but in spite of the above, America’s fractiousness, yet universally held righteous anger towards the U.S. Government will mean there may be dozens of leaders that arise.  Or it may be one man or woman who takes action, has a clear vision and a practical course of action to achieve victory.  Leaders can lead, or they die and become martyrs, inspiring more people to take up the actions they initiated.  Or, taking out said leadership would send the thousands of small groups, millions of active American insurgents into a death spiral of infighting… but likely not given the size of the enemy and just how monstrously they’ve acted against us.  Open warfare begins in America and enemy initiatives to decapitate any insurgency might backfire.

4. The tactics insurgents use alienate the very people they are trying to win over.

Americans are still in the mainstream a highly moral people, greatly hesitant to resort to violence which is the biggest reason there hasn’t been a much needed Second American Revolution.  It is a trait the enemy has exploited and is counting on until they figure it’s too late.  On the other hand, Americans during war are the most fearsome fighters on Earth.  Vicious, unmerciful, and technologically and tactically proficient, the American fighting man was responsible for winning against the technologically superior German Wehrmacht and fanatical Japanese during World War Two, held the line against both millions of Chinese troops and a traitorous U.S. Government during Korea, and devastated Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan, killing millions. 

Americans have a deep, festering reservoir of rage against the same U.S. Government as they’ve been at war against the American People for generations.  Any faction of Americans who remain loyal to said government volunteer to put on themselves their wrath.  Said factions of urban liberals and welfare enslaved in general don’t have a grasp of American history to appreciate what horrors await them.  Unfortunately, a lot of people still trying to live their lives, to stay on the fence, who might’ve been shown the futility of trying to remain peaceable, moral in a time where it’s needed for them to participate in purging this nation will also be targeted with the same ferociousness and rage: a lot of people that could’ve been won over, won’t.  This will also further compress anyone in solidly U.S. Government controlled areas to further embrace their enslavers in order to save themselves from the horror.  American Patriots however, can win over a lot of those who’ve never been properly and fairly exposed to Patriot ideals simply by retaining that moral high ground, to not take from anyone but ask, to respect them and their property.  A simple matter of respect will go a very long way towards winning hearts and minds as the enemy couldn’t give a damn about respect-and goes all out to seeing just how less respectful they can be.  They’re very good at that.

5. The ideas and/or the rule of the insurgents are simply disliked.

This is where the enemy has most widely succeeded.  Through generations of state run schools, domination of the media and through that American mass culture, the ideals of the Patriot Movement, militias, self-sufficiency, and self-defense have been made to be blasphemous to the American People-and no that’s not too strong a word.  The scientifically perfected conditioning through entertainment and implanted cultural memes has produced in Americans minds a hatred and fear of Freedom; they’d rather be comfortable in the enemy’s faux gold paint gilded cage; safe in the mental matrix.  It’s only when they’re torn from this matrix by job loss, assault, or incarceration that they can even begin to see the truth of their situation-and yet their conditioning and indoctrination continue to sabotage their efforts to sort things out for themselves, and a hesitancy to openly join the Patriot Movement lest they receive the same ostracizing they heaped on them themselves by their own conditioning and indoctrination. 

Patriot ideals are imaginary notions, untested theory to most Americans who have never known what Freedom is but are told they are ‘free’.  That is why this author has been active in the Patriot Movement since 2005 in advocating giving Americans a working real-life model of what being Free actually is like: by organizing a recall election, with a full slate of candidates to take over a town.  Make said town a showcase of Freedom, and use it as a springboard for peaceably arranging the same in neighboring towns, counties, and eventually states.  Such a plan is why this author has been systematically stiff armed from the controlled, gatekeeper-ran Patriot Movement by the government COINTEL plants who will report all day on government atrocities, promote all manner of New Age nonsense, promote uselessly symbolic gestures, sell you t-shirts and memberships all day long, but suppress any practical peaceable solutions while they might’ve worked.  Such a strategy if it could have been implemented could’ve produced a much better strategic situation for the Patriot Movement.  This ignorance of what living truly Free is like will be the biggest reason why a Second American Revolution is going to be mightily opposed by a great horde of Americans who would otherwise greatly benefit from being freed of their enemy, the U.S. Government.  This will not be geographically uniform; major urban areas will likely be hostile territory, while the countryside where some measure of Freedom still exists will likely be fertile ground for liberation.  Likely… again the aforementioned factors will work both for and against Patriots in ways that can and will be hard to foresee. 

6. Insurgents sometimes pursue bad strategy.

Which is seen all the time in the Freedom Movement and the militias, and tragically it isn’t always sabotage by counter-intelligence operatives and shysters.  Americans have been engineered to be a trusting and naïve people.  They trust their celebrities and authorities and this trust extends to anyone in a leadership capacity.  Not all Patriot leaders are Pied Pipers but many operate off of faulty viewpoints and knowledge that generate faulty strategy.  Doubling down on Ron Paul in 2012 when he proved four years earlier he wouldn’t challenge vote fraud, wouldn’t promote local initiatives yet kept the tens of millions of dollars spontaneously contributed by his rabidly loyal followers is one glaring example that has crippled the Patriot Movement.    

The movement’s lack of political, social, and economic initiative prevents growth of numbers and potential alliances with outcast groups as well as millions of formerly mainstream Americans who have had their lives and livelihood brutally taken from them by the enemy.  Better they are misled, to wait for the collapse and let it happen as they’re told it will take the government with them, but they have engineered this collapse and have spent trillions preparing for it, and our reaction when they strip the last of the gilding from our collective cage.  Millions of Americans have already had it happen on an individual level but most are so socially atomized it isn’t noticed. 

Libertarians are all about symbolic stands that might produce some media and acclaim among themselves but are too insular, too close-minded, too arrogant to see they’re utterly ineffective politically or socially, delusions about Ron Paul set aside.  They lack a real life model showcasing how their ideals would work in the real world and by their activity across the nation and in New Hampshire and Wyoming in particular show no indication they’re willing to implement one. 

The Prepper Movement will likely attempt to cocoon themselves from their expected form of utter collapse and count on repelling the starving hordes, but it will be by the muzzles of government guns that will spell their doom.  Perhaps the recent false flag school shooting at Sandy Hook will change enough minds to help increase the ranks of Patriots, or perhaps they’ll strike some deals that will prove to be in vain-although even a farmer can feed a fighting group.

Fans of Alex Jones will wage their “infowar” and continue to finance his mansion, secret bunker, that ever-expanding studio he hardly uses, and his Dodge Challenger… right up to when the last of them gets thrown on a bus to a camp or dug pit.

The III Percent Movement, defecting police and military, veterans and Militias will be the fighting foundation of the Second American Revolution-they are the only potentially effective solution left.  However, they are mostly conservative, seeking to only defend, or simply find a reason not to act.

All the above will likely be the root of some very bad strategic goals and policies by themselves, conflicting goals will easily lead to various fighting groups being cut off and wiped out with other groups nearby who won’t due to some disagreement, or worse, they fight each other.  Given the utter penetration of the Patriot Movement and militias by the enemy, any American insurgency runs the grave risk of sabotage and being led into lethal traps on the battlefield.


1.)We need numbers, in order to take territory, in order to acquire food, resources, production capacity in order to build the weapons we can’t take from the battlefield or get in trade in order to eventually negate the enemy’s advantages in heavy weaponry and technology.  We also need to gain as much territory as possible in order to isolate all the enemy strongholds.  A map of the United States:
Alaska and Hawaii’s fate will depend on whether the contiguous U.S.A. can be won. 

New England and the Eastern Seaboard will be solidly government territory, with a few isolated pockets of resistance that will quickly be crushed.  Once the Appalachian Mountains are hit however, the situation is reversed; Patriot fighting groups will likely arise from upper New York State through Pennsylvania, Southeastern Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, the Virginias, the Carolinas, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi.    All of these states will need to be taken over and held fast.  Ohio will be particularly strategic as it’s a crossroads state, with Cincinnatti, Columbus, and Cleveland-Akron-Youngstown that will have to be taken over.  Michigan past Detroit and the greater Chicago metropolitan area is solidly Patriot, but the Mississippi and Ohio River Valley will be held hard.  Minneapolis-St. Paul, St. Louis, Cincinnatti, Pittsburgh, Memphis, and New Orleans will be strongholds that need to fall in order to gain control of the rivers.  West of the Mississippi, the enemy don’t hold states so much as strongpoints until California is reached; Denver, Cheyenne, Salt Lake City, and the military bases are going to be strongpoints that need to be isolated.  Once Nevada’s reached, that’s going to be controlled from Southern California which will link up with the Seattle area down the Pacific Coast.  A lot of territory but few people and few roads.

The Key to a Patriot Victory on the strategic level is if the Mississippi River Valley and its tributaries can be won and held, and Ohio in order to connect solidly with Appalachia and hopefully be able to help rural New England as they will be in a bad strategic vise between the Eastern Seaboard and Canada.  Michigan must hold as well so that Canada is held back and Chicago can be besieged.  If Chicago can be neutralized or taken through a prolonged siege, the great heartland of America can be taken, and it will be a matter of taking on the East and West Coasts.  Texas must be held as well in order to block Mexico.

2.)To gain those numbers the American insurgency must, must embrace anyone willing to be Free.  Class, cultural and racial differences must be set aside in order to purge our land of the enemy. 

3.)To attract new people, the Freedom Movement must become much more willing to help Americans outside of their circles… or even willing to help those they count within their circles.  I will cite one glaring example where that failed: Charles Dyer.  He was a Marine who spoke out during the Bush years, got in trouble for it, and went to trial three times over a bogus airsoft copy of a grenade launcher, and totally made up child molestation charges, the last they won by making him flee for his life when his home and all his exculpatory evidence was burned in an act of arson-and the judge only gave him a week delay as his trial was going to start the next Monday from the incident.  He fled, was sold out by his contacts, was caught shirtless in Texas trying to get a drink at a restaurant.  Dyer’s final trial was basically one day mostly held in the judge’s chambers and he was sent to prison for 30 years.  This author attempted repeatedly to rally support for Dyer but was stymied at every turn by COINTEL operators like “mamaliberty” and probably worse, endemic indifference. 

Common gangbangers can count on support for their trial and in prison.  When they get out, they are not on their ass.  That the Patriot Movement could learn from street thugs is by itself testament enough to how ineffective the ‘movement’ has been led to be.  It’s a testament to how the ‘movement’ has been left in the hands of celebrity gatekeepers who effectively neutralize it for the enemy.

The solution is simply this: we all must be leaders.  We must retain our righteousness while unleashing our righteous wrath upon the enemy.  We must be as willing to lead as to follow.  Most importantly, we must ruthlessly pursue strategies and policies that will bring victory, and weed out the traitors among us.

Americans will never know what Freedom is until we actively pursue it for ourselves.  This runs the gamut from not paying taxes, working the underground economy, not applying for licenses, to making showcase communities such as the experiment in Idaho by some III’ers but taking over a small town and making it a showcase would much more rapidly make our point.  Events and traitors in our midst dissembling our efforts however have made those options increasingly non-viable, we will have to win our Freedom by force of arms.

1 comment:

Another Anon said...

Good article.

Once thats done, you had better have an after plan too.

Millions of people who basically support you but aren't fighters are going to be cold,sick, hurt, hungry and scared and unless you have a plan of some kind to deal with it, they are easy prey for counter revolutionaries, OP-For infiltrators and propagandists or assimilation by marginally allied forces you might not want in a leadership role such as say Neo Nazis.

Lead to victory, lead and govern after